FUTURE BUREAUCRAT

A Spanish surgeon who examined Cuban leader Fidel Castro reported yesterday that he does not have intestinal cancer. José Luis García Sabrido, a surgeon from Madrid, was intentionally vague about Castro’s condition, presumably because the Cuban government considers the leader’s health a state secret.

Castro has defied expectations before; however, despite the latest report, it appears his health is rapidly deteriorating. It is reasonable to expect Castro’s death in the coming weeks.

Whatever one’s opinion of the regime in Cuba, one has to recognize the political skill displayed in effecting the transfer of power to Fidel’s brother, Raul. The official announcement in August of this year portrayed the transfer as temporary. In a statement read by his secretary, Fidel said that he needed time to rest and recover from surgery for intestinal bleeding. Meanwhile, Raul remained out of the public eye. Fidel has subsequently made a number of taped appearances on television from his hospital bed, including one with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. He has appeared weak, but obviously alive and in good spirits. The regime continues to claim Fidel will return to power. Raul has made a few public appearances, most importantly a speech in Havana on December 2 commemorating the beginning of the revolution.

Consider the benefits of this strategy for the Cuban regime:

1. Fidel Castro’s enemies - domestic and foreign - are left to guess at his status, and therefore are unable to capitalize on the chaos that could result if he were to pass suddenly;
2. The Cuban public is being prepared - gradually - for his passing and for Raul’s eventual leadership;
3. Raul has had many months to consolidate his power behind the scenes and develop his own relationships inside and outside the regime.

Politics aside, the Cuban regime has succeeded in walking a fine line between showing weakness and preparing the world for a future without Fidel. We don’t know what Cuba will look like under Raul Castro’s leadership but, unlike 6 months ago, we know that he will be in charge.