Ethiopia opened a broad offensive in Somalian territory on Sunday, bombing the airport in Mogadishu and moving ground troops across the border in support of the besieged provisional government in the town of Baidoa. Only a few weeks ago, the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) looked certain to consolidate power over the whole of Southern Somalia.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi announced the intervention by declaring that his country was acting in self-defense: “Ethiopian defence forces were forced to enter into war to protect the sovereignty of the nation and to blunt repeated attacks by Islamic courts terrorists and anti-Ethiopian elements they are supporting.” It isn’t the first time Ethiopia has intervened in Southern Somalia. The government is concerned by reported connections between the ICU, rebel groups in Ethiopia and the international jihadist network. Given the circumstances, one can certainly understand the motivation of the Ethiopian government, if not the reaction.
Let’s hope the Ethiopian government has a good idea of what they will accomplish by intervening at this stage because, by all accounts, the first chapter of this war will be brief. The teenagers of the ICU militias are no match for well-trained Ethiopian regulars with close air support. Ethiopia has the support of the U.S. government and the African Union, who want to see the transitional government returned to power in Mogadishu. The U.S. government has been providing military assistance and training to the Ethiopian Army for some years now.
But what happens after military victory? Ethiopia can’t stay in Somalia forever; they have their own problems with Eritrea to the North. At some point they will withdraw and leave the transitional government in charge. This is the same collection of warlords that proved incapable of governing Mogadishu proper, much less the whole of Somalia. It was their failure that created the power vacuum filled by the ICU.
Even though the conflict is in its first few days, the lessons for US policymakers should be immediate:
First, all Islamic movements are not alike. There are some similarities between the Islamic Courts Union and other Islamic movements; namely, they provide stability and governance in the absence of effective authority (see Taliban) and offer social services to a destitute population (see Hamas). However, there is evidence that the ICU wanted to reach out to the West after their rise to power earlier this year. It is also believed that while there may be extremist elements within the ICU, they are more moderate than they have been portrayed in the Western media. With an effective diplomatic strategy, the US government could have tried to take advantage of the stability they provided to Somalia and marginalize the hard-line Islamists within the group. Terrorists feed on instability.
Second, the US government should be downplaying West vs. East conflicts, not encouraging them. Ethiopia is a Christian country; Somalia is mostly Islamic. The al-Qaeda propaganda machine is getting warmed up as we speak.
Third, if Iraq has taught us anything in the past few years, it is that conflict is unpredictable. The African Union could intervene on behalf of the transitional government, Eritrea could intervene on behalf of the Islamic Courts Union, jihadis could start arriving in Somalia en masse and radicalize the ICU, wealthy Saudi Arabians could continue to support the ICU with cash and weapons.
Here’s hoping the world doesn’t wake up to a regional war in East Africa.